Forex trends Friday: Euro rallies against dollar; DBS forecasts weaker Singapore dollar

Euro coinsPhoto by Leslie Shaffer

The euro rallied on Thursday amid further dovish signals from U.S. policy makers, while DBS forecast that the Singapore dollar would depreciate this year.

In the U.S. on Thursday, Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank could be patient in deciding future rate increases. Analysts said it indicated that interest rates may not rise much further and possibly not quickly, Reuters reported.

That was set to provide headwinds for any gains by the U.S. dollar as the expectations of higher rates had made previously made it a more attractive currency.

Those expectations may have spurred the euro higher.

The euro/dollar climbed on Thursday, topping 1.15 to the dollar.

“Breaking through the 1.1500 is enormous, and if I’m reading this one correctly, G10 traders will put greater emphasis on the dovish Fed vs the already baked in downside risk for the euro, which suggest the euro will move higher to test the 1.1629 (200-day moving average) on it’s the way to 1.1800,” Stephen Innes, head of Asia Pacific trading at OANDA, said in a note on Friday.

Singapore dollar to fall?

Despite signs that the greenback was wilting amid fresh signals interest rate increases may be tempered, DBS was tipping the Singapore dollar would weaken.

DBS forecast the Singapore dollar would depreciate this year, with the pair set to trade above 1.40, on expectations the city-state’s trading partners would see more currency depreciation and that the country’s economic growth was set to slow.

“Any easing in U.S.-China trade tensions, while welcome, will not be a panacea to China’s slowdown challenges,” Philip, Wee, foreign-exchange strategist at DBS, said in a note on Thursday, forecasting the dollar/yuan to head over 7.

In addition, Wee said he expected the U.S. Federal Reserve to hike interest rates twice more to 3 percent by the end of the third quarter.

“Hence, interest rate differentials, both in nominal and real terms, will continue to widen in the favor of the U.S. dollar,” he said.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was at 95.55 at 7:05 A.M. SGT, climbing from as low as 95.12 on Thursday, according to ICE futures data.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield was at 2.734 percent at 8:24 A.M. SGT after rising to as high as 2.748 percent in Thursday’s session, according to Tullett Prebon data.

The euro/dollar was at 1.1514 at 8:28 A.M. SGT after trading in a 1.1483 to 1.1570 range on Thursday, according to DZHI data.

The British pound/dollar was at 1.2753 at 8:28 A.M. SGT after trading in a 1.2726 to 1.2801 range on Thursday, according to DZHI data.

The dollar/yen was at 108.313 at 8:29 A.M. SGT after trading in a 107.74 to 108.519 range on Thursday, according to DZHI data.

The dollar/yuan ended Thursday at 6.7874 after trading in a 6.7730 to 6.8224 range during the session, according to DZHI data.

The dollar/Singapore dollar was at 1.3514 at 8:30 A.M. SGT after trading in a 1.3496 to 1.3546 range on Thursday, according to DZHI data.

The dollar/Malaysian ringgit was at 4.0980 at 8:22 A.M. SGT after trading in a 4.0900 to 4.1130 range on Thursday, according to DZHI data.

The dollar/Indonesian rupiah ended Thursday at 14,088 after trading in a 14,000 to 14,120 range during the session, according to DZHI data.

 

 

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