Singapore market trends Monday: Wall Street selloff may be offset by Black Friday turnout

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Singapore’s shares will open Monday with a slew of mixed signals, with a selloff on Wall Street on Friday and fears the annual Santa Claus rally may turn into a lump of coal potentially offset by decent Black Friday retail sales in the U.S.

“With month-end approaching and when combined with year-end flows starting to factor, markets could get both messy and noisy in quick order this week,” Stephen Innes, head of Asia Pacific trading at OANDA, said in a note on Monday.

“Besides headline risk remaining elevated around EU-Brexit talks and the G-20 summit, from a flow perspective, it’s going to be a very tricky week as traders are beginning to fold their cards knowing markets have that remarkable tendency to swing one way into year end,” he said.

The closely watched Black Friday sales in the U.S., one of the world’s most important consumer markets, appeared on track for a positive showing.

ShopperTrak, which is part of Tyco Retail Solutions, a retail industry data provider, found that shopper visits to brick-and-mortar stores for the combined U.S. Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday were down 1.7 percent on-year.

That may be because more shoppers eschewed physical stores, crowds and parking challenges in favor of shopping online, with data from Adobe Analytics reportedly showing that Black Friday online sales were US$6.22 billion, up 23.6 percent on-year and a record high; the data track e-commerce transactions for 80 of the top 100 U.S. retailers.

In Brexit news, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May reached a deal with the EU on Sunday, with the continent’s leaders saying there wouldn’t be a better deal and the U.K.’s parliament shouldn’t scuttle it.

Indexes

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.15 percent at 8:29 A.M. SGT, while South Korea’s Kospi was up 0.50 percent at 8:34 A.M. SGT.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index ended Friday up 0.37 percent at 3052.49; November futures for the index were at 3053 on Friday, while December and January futures were at 3051 and 3053 respectively.

Last week, DBS had tipped index resistance at 3055, followed by 3085, and support at 3000, followed by 2940; it had a year-end objective of 3200.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down 0.35 percent at 25,927.68 on Friday, while China’s CSI 300 was off 2.21 percent at 3143.475.

Malaysia’s KLCI was nearly flat at 1695.88 on Friday, while Indonesia’s IDX Composite added 0.26 percent to 6006.20.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.73 percent to end at 24,285.95 on Friday in a shortened holiday session, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.48 percent at 6938.984 and the S&P 500 lost 0.66 percent to 2632.56. Futures for the three indexes were higher in early trade.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the buck against a basket of currencies, was at 96.93 at 8:11 A.M. SGT, climbing sharply from as low as 96.42 early in Friday’s session, according to ICE futures data.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield was at 3.04 percent at 6:59 P.M. U.S. ET on Friday, dropping from as high as 3.075 percent early in the session, according to Tullett Prebon data.

The euro/dollar was at 1.1338 at 8:23 A.M. SGT after trading in a 1.1326 to 1.1421 range on Friday, according to DZHI data.

The British pound/dollar was at 1.2815 at 8:23 A.M. SGT after trading in a 1.2797 to 1.2883 range on Friday, according to DZHI data.

The dollar/yen was at 112.907 at 8:23 A.M. SGT after trading in a 112.63 to 113.01 range on Friday, according to DZHI data.

The dollar/yuan ended Friday at 6.9476 after trading in a 6.9311 to 6.9488 range in the session, according to DZHI data.

The dollar/Singapore dollar was at 1.3751 at 8:24 A.M. SGT after trading in a 1.3717 to 1.3757 range on Friday, according to DZHI data.

The dollar/Malaysian ringgit was at 4.1940 at 8:06 A.M. SGT after trading in a 4.1920 to 4.1960 range on Friday, according to DZHI data.

The dollar/Indonesian rupiah was at 14,575 at Friday’s close after trading in a 14,565 to 14,615 range during the session, according to DZHI data.

Oil

Nymex WTI crude oil futures for January were up 0.42 percent at US$50.63 a barrel at 8:01 A.M. SGT after dropping sharply on Friday, while ICE Brent crude oil futures for January were up 0.71 percent at US$59.22 a barrel at 8:00 A.M. SGT, according to Bloomberg data.

Oil prices plunged on Friday, tumbling nearly 8 percent amid supply glut concerns, Reuters reported.

“Everything that’s been identified bearish remains intact. Pointing to one smoking gun is impossible,” OANDA’s Innes said. “Instead, it’s a toxic combination of factors, highlighted by oversupply concerns, OPEC uncertainty, a very shaky risk environment on the back of the slowing global growth narrative, the precipitous swing on fund positioning (based on CFTC report) and financial risk aversion flows.”

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