Singapore’s shares may retrace on Tuesday some losses from this month’s global equity rout as regional markets shook off a negative lead from Wall Street in early trade. But it wasn’t clear how much faith traders would put in any recovery.
“We always like how analysts and the President [Trump] as well say the stock market correction was to be expected. We found it stomach-turning, and we are not alone,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, said in his weekly note.
He pointed to expectations the Federal Reserve would hike interest rates again in December, noting that business could become less optimistic and could commit to less capital expenditure if rates move to tightening levels.
Rupkey added, “there are downside risks for the world from rising trade tensions and it is too early to tell if the U.S. economy can overcome these global headwinds.”
U.S. retail sales miss
In the U.S., retail sales data for September missed expectations, rising just 0.1 percent, compared with a Reuters poll forecast for a 0.6 percent rise, amid as a drop in spending at restaurants and bars was masked by a rise in auto sales.
“Simply put, it looks like the consumer has spent all their tax cuts monies and are more concerned about the the Trump administration’s trade war with the world,” Rupkey said in a separate note on Monday U.S. time. “There is no forward momentum for the economy from the consumer in September, and this could cause economists to mark down their estimates for GDP growth as we head into the November elections.”
Rupkey also noted that Americans don’t actually know yet what their tax bill will be this year because tax forms aren’t available yet.
“There could be a rude awakening for many taxpayers when they find out their withholding rates were reduced, but they will actually end up owing more to Uncle Sam next April,” he said.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 opened up 0.23 percent and South Korea’s Kospi was up 0.62 percent at 8:06 A.M. SGT.
Singapore’s Straits Times Index ended Monday down 0.76 percent at 3045.97; October futures for the index were at 3047 on Monday, while November and December futures were at 3050 and 3047 respectively.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.38 percent on Tuesday to 25,445.061, while China’s CSI 300 shed 1.40 percent to 3126.452.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.35 percent to 25,250.55, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.88 percent to 7430.744 and the S&P 500 declined 0.59 percent to 2750.79. Futures for the three indexes were nose in the green.
The U.S. dollar index was at 95.04 at 6:04 A.M. SGT, down from as high as 95.36 early on Monday, when it fell as low as 94.97, according to ICE futures data.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield was at 3.163 percent at 7:50 A.M. SGT after touching levels as low as 3.146 percent on Monday, according to Tullett Prebon data.
The euro/dollar was at 1.1582 at 7:53 A.M. SGT after trading in a 1.1534 to 1.1606 range on Monday, according to DZHI data.
The dollar/yen was at 111.853 at 7:54 A.M. SGT after trading in a 111.59 to 112.259 range on Monday, according to DZHI data.
The dollar/yuan ended Monday at 6.9130 after trading in a 6.9130 to 6.9298 range on Monday, according to DZHI data.
The dollar/Singapore dollar was at 1.3760 at 7:56 A.M. SGT after trading in a 1.3747 to 1.3794 range on Monday, according to DZHI data.
The dollar/Indonesian rupiah ended Monday at 15,200 after trading in a 15,180 to 15,250 range on Monday, according to DZHI data.
The dollar/Malaysian ringgit ended Monday at 4.1540 after trading in a 4.1515 to 4.1585 range on Monday, according to DZHI data.
Nymex WTI crude oil futures for November were down 0.01 percent at US$71.77 a barrel at 7:29 A.M. SGT, while ICE Brent crude futures for December were up 0.44 percent at US$80.78 at 5:59 A.M. SGT, according to Bloomberg data.