After applying the same econometric tools usually applied to investment opportunities, Germany appears likely to win the World Cup, UBS wealth managements chief investment office said.
“Simulations indicate no country has higher odds of winning the tournament than Germany, leading the table with a likelihood of 24 percent,” it said in a note on Thursday.
“Brazil and Spain also stand a good chance of lifting the trophy, with chances of 19.8 and 16.1 percent respectively,” it said. “The likelihood of one of these three teams winning is 60 percent, according to our calculations.”
That was after consulting the “Elo rating” of team strength, which examines past performance, with victories against stronger teams and in important matches given higher weight, it said, calling it among the most important indicators of World Cup success.
“Germany and Brazil are set for an easy start, while Spain will have to hit the ground running if they are to beat Portugal, the current European champions, in their opening game,” UBS said. But it added, England, France, Belgium and Argentina would need to watched for surprises.
Even though host nations tend to do well, UBS only expected host nation Russia to reach round 16, where it would likely lose to Spain or Portugal.