Genting Singapore fall ‘unwarranted,’ and valuation now ‘more compelling:’ Analyst

Singapore five-dollar note Photo by Leslie Shaffer

Genting Singapore’s share-price drop this year is “unwarranted,” and the stock appears undervalued, CGS-CIMB said in a note last week.

The recent selloff has left the stock trading at a “more compelling” 7.3 times 2019 enterprise value-to-EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization), it noted, adding that compares with its historical average of 10 times and regional peers’ average of 11.1 times.

“In our view, GENS’s current valuation does not take into account its: i) better operating environment; ii) improved fundamentals (improving ROEs and sustained EBITDA margins), and ii) strong balance sheet,” it said.

The stock also has potential catalysts from a potential increase to the dividend per share and a potential win of a casino project in Japan, it said, noting it hadn’t incorporated those into its estimates.

CGS-CIMB said the stock’s recent decline suggested the market was pricing in an adjusted EBITDA decline over 2018-20, which it called “unwarranted.”

It noted that Singapore VIP volumes returned to growth in 2017 after declining consecutively on-year over 2014-16, attributing it to the gradual easing of Chinese fund inflow; it forecast that Singapore’s VIP volume would grow 2-5 percent on-year over 2018-20.

GENS also said it intended to ease its credit policies this year for VIPs, it noted.

But CGS-CIMB said it cut its fiscal 2018-20 earnings per share forecasts by 4.3-5.4 percent and it lowered its target price slightly to S$1.40 from S$1.49. It kept an Add call.

The stock ended Friday up 5.56 percent at S$1.14, but that’s down from an intraday level as high as S$1.40 in late January.

Separately, Bloomberg Gadfly recently argued that Genting Bhd., and particularly Genting Singapore, could make a run at Wynn Resorts, which holds a Macau casino license via Wynn Macau.