This country could grab China market share from one US product if trade war escalates

Thai baht notesThai baht notes

If the U.S.-China trade tensions escalate, Thailand’s chicken product exports could surge, Maybank KimEng said in a note this week.

“Should there be disruptions in U.S./China trade in swine-related products, we expect chicken products to step in as substitutes,” it said, noting Thailand’s prepared chicken exports were up 19.4 percent in the first two months of this year.

“Their exports are likely to gain momentum, especially now that the Chinese government has allowed the purchasing of by-products from
approved Thai facilities,” it said. “Although there will some administrative matters to clear before Thailand starts its first exports of chicken products to China, we think there is urgency to remove hurdles quickly, given the stand-off in trade.”

Overall, the brokerage said that while trade spats between bigger economies such as the U.S. and China can disrupt trade flows and hurt smaller countries, Thailand appeared to be at least somewhat shielded because most of its exports were intermediate products.

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